NEW YORK -- After telling his morning radio fans that he'll bolt to Sirius Satellite Radio in 15 months, Howard Stern reflects on the move in a phone call. He swears just once during a 15-minute conversation Wednesday. Stern uses a single bathroom adjective to describe his dark mood lately as the specter of huge fines against him and Infinity Broadcasting by the Federal Communications Commission has prompted censors to crawl all over his top-rated syndicated show. Otherwise, he's a model of propriety. ''Satellite radio became a business today,'' Stern says. ''When radio's biggest star voluntarily takes himself off terrestrial radio and an empire, you know it's the real deal. I'm saying to the medium, I'm saying to the industry, I'm saying to my fellow broadcasters, 'We do have a choice.' '' Come 2006, Stern will leave the air and head to pay radio in a five-year deal that Sirius values at $100 million a year. In the process, he'll become instantly immune from FCC regulators and their fines -- as unfettered on the subscription-only service as artists and executives are at cable's HBO. In a statement, FCC Chairman Michael Powell said good riddance to Stern: ''Satellite radio is one of the many technologies that the commission is strongly promoting to expand the diversity of choices for the American public. It is not surprising that notable performers and journalists are turning to a medium that allows them to paint with a broader palette.'' Analysts say that satellite radio -- with the necessary gear increasingly offered as standard or optional equipment by car manufacturers -- could be a new frontier. Just as radio and newspapers steadily lost clout in recent decades to television, and as cable and the Internet increasingly siphon viewers from broadcast TV, so too could satellite radio cut into AM and FM audiences, becoming home to hosts like Stern who bridle at federal rules on salacious material. All it takes to succeed is enough fans willing to shell out a few bucks each month to hear them, just as they do for HBO or Showtime. Joining the big leagues Sirius executives and industry observers repeatedly compared Stern's market-shifting, medium-validating influence to that of the National Football League. ''This is as important to satellite radio as the NFL going to ESPN,'' says Tom Wolzien, media analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. ''When you bring top talent to a new medium, it brings attention and credibility. It doesn't mean that you win. But it's a necessary part of the process.'' Stern's move, says Sirius chief Joseph Clayton, will do for satellite radio what the NFL ''Sunday Ticket'' package programming did for satellite TV operator DirecTV and what hiring David Letterman did for CBS' late-night programming: Put them on the map. ''The No. 1 celebrity in radio coming to satellite radio,'' he says, ''is a watershed event that really moves the needle.'' The price will be steep Scott Greenstein, president of Sirius entertainment and sports, who negotiated the deal with Stern's agent, Don Buchwald, estimates that Sirius will have to lure just 1 million of Stern's estimated 11 million listeners to make the deal pay off. But some analysts say that's too optimistic. ''I believe the (subscription) number to break even is at least several times higher'' than 1 million, says Legg Mason analyst Sean Butson. ''It comes down to: Did they pay too much? It's possible that they did.'' Stern's fans have followed him through radio, pay-per-view specials, books and feature films, notes Greenstein. He has no doubts that many will follow their hero to Sirius. ''If you look at Howard's fan base, they are fanatical. They move when Howard moves.'' Investors were enthusiastic about the news. Shares in Sirius, which have lagged the Standard & Poor's 500 for most of the year, shot up 15.5% to close at $3.87. But the upstart company is betting big by guaranteeing Stern $100 million in cash and stock each year from 2006 through 2010. Sirius has yet to show a profit: It lost $226 million on revenue of nearly $13 million in 2003. David Card, media analyst at Jupiter Research, questions Sirius' numbers: ''How can you spend $100 million a year on a radio show? I bet HBO doesn't spend that on The Sopranos. I think the numbers are just a lot of Hollywood hype. If they end up spending $500 million on Howard Stern, that's wildly expensive.'' Stern raises bar in satellite rivalry No matter the price tag, the move makes the satellite radio business a more competitive two-horse race. Sirius, which went up in 2002, has 600,000 subscribers. XM Satellite Radio, which went live in 2001, has 2.5 million. Monday, XM began airing shows hosted by former National Public Radio star Bob Edwards and by former Infinity shock jocks Opie and Anthony. But those hosts, Stern notes, were pushed from their former homes. He is defecting. And regulators are closing in. House and Senate negotiators this week reached a deal on an indecency bill that would for the first time fine performers as well as broadcast stations as much as $500,000 per incident for offensive programming. Performers are currently exempt from fines, which are limited to $32,500 per violation. Negotiations are underway to attach the measure to another bill so it could be passed this year. Stern said he has nothing but good will toward longtime employer Infinity, a Viacom subsidiary, which he says offered him a five-year contract two years ago. But Infinity's hands were increasingly tied by a government crackdown on indecency that he says has become draconian and is stifling free speech on the air. Network censors ''hit a button on me every minute,'' Stern said. ''I've got a censor in New York, and in every other market they've got additional censors. We are so confused now with this radio show. I can't air my 'best of' shows. I can't air the same material I was doing a year ago. They chop it up. They edit it. In most cases they won't re-air it. ''I can function in that world, but I just wasn't digging it anymore,'' he said. ''I have a way of talking, of being freewheeling. I liken it to Chris Rock. It's not that he can't work clean, but you take his HBO show and put it on NBC and have them hack it up, and you're not getting the full experience.'' Meanwhile, he has nothing but enmity toward the FCC -- and Clear Channel Communications, which dropped his show from its stations in April after the FCC proposed a $495,000 fine against them for comments Stern made. ''My dream is that places like Clear Channel will have $100 million properties, and I can take those properties and reduce them to rubble, that literally I can make them worthless,'' Stern said. ''They'll look like antiques when we're done.'' Clear Channel wouldn't comment on Stern's move, made on the day that the National Association of Broadcasters gathered in San Diego for its annual radio convention. Stern sees assault on traditional radio Stern says that if he and Sirius can give listeners ''a quality product and give them great alternatives, in most cases with no commercials, I think those AM and FM properties become worthless.'' Infinity chief Joel Hollander disagrees. ''There's not a singular talent in any medium bigger than the medium itself, whether it's Howard Stern or Tom Brokaw.'' Despite Sirius' announcement of what it called ''the most important deal in radio history,'' Hollander also says it ain't over till it's over. Infinity reportedly pays Stern $20 million per year, making him its highest-paid on-air talent. There's a long 15-month gap before Stern starts his Sirius relationship, Hollander muses. ''Things change. That's a long time in the media business or any business. This is only the first day of this story.'' He hints that Infinity could negotiate a strategic partnership with Sirius to maintain its relationship with Stern. And he speculates that other radio technologies, such as Internet radio, could take off and leave players like Sirius in trouble. Meanwhile, Stern's departure would allow Infinity to bring in new talent and try new concepts, he says. During the next 15 months, Infinity will raise its ad rates to capitalize on the buzz surrounding Stern. ''We expect his ratings to be huge,'' Hollander says. Stern's followers, mostly 18-to-49-year-old men, buy lots of cars and consumer electronics products -- and represent the sweet spot as potential satellite radio customers. ''We view the deal in much the same way as when Fox used the NFC (football) rights to build the Fox Television Network,'' says Citigroup Smith Barney's Niraj Gupta. ''This transaction could accelerate the shift of marquee talent away from traditional radio and onto satellite radio.'' Cover story To see more of USAToday.com, or to subscribe, go to http://www.usatoday.com © Copyright 2004 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co. Inc.